🔬 How GTDEdge Works

The methodology behind the model

What is GTDEdge?

GTDEdge is an AI-powered sports betting analysis tool built to find real edge in the lines — not noise. Every day the model runs the full slate across MLB and major sports. It compares real performance data against implied odds, calculates statistical edge, and surfaces only the plays worth considering. No forced picks, no filler — if the model doesn't see value, it says so.

The Edge Model

For every prop and game line, the model calculates three numbers:

  • Implied probability — what the odds say the chance of hitting is
  • Fair probability — what the actual historical data says (last 10–20 games)
  • Edge — Fair % minus Implied %

Pick thresholds:

Plus money (+100 or better): 3%+ edge required

Slight juice (-101 to -130): 5%+ edge required

Nothing worse than -130 is ever recommended — period

The Two-Post Model

🕛 12pm Radar

3–5 candidates worth monitoring. Lineups may not be confirmed — these are flagged as monitoring only, not final picks.

🕔 5pm Picks

Final 1–3 plays after lineups confirm. Any prop with an unconfirmed lineup is automatically excluded.

Data the Model Uses

  • ⚾ Live odds from DraftKings and FanDuel
  • 📊 MLB pitcher game logs, batter splits, confirmed lineups, days rest
  • 🏟️ Park factors for all 30 MLB stadiums
  • 📉 Opponent strikeout rate — how often the opposing lineup strikes out
  • 🌤️ Real-time weather — wind speed/direction and temperature at game time
  • 👤 Home plate umpire context
  • 🤖 Injury gap detection — flags samples that span unusual time periods

Sports Covered

⚾ MLB (primary) — 🏀 NBA — 🏒 NHL — 🏈 NFL — 🏈 NCAAF — ⚽ MLS — ⚽ EPL — ⚽ Champions League — ⛳ PGA

NBA and NHL are evaluated on odds reasoning only — no player-level stats. MLB is the most deeply modeled sport.

Known Limitations

  • Injury reports are not automatically tracked — always verify before betting
  • NBA/NHL player stats: odds-based reasoning only, no game log data
  • Sample sizes vary — small samples are flagged but not excluded
  • Past performance does not guarantee future results
GTDEdge is an analytical tool, not financial advice. Never bet more than you can afford to lose. Follow @GTDEdge for updates.